Overnight, Fiona grew into a powerful Cat 4 Hurricane with sustained winds of 135 mph. As of the 5:00 PM EDT (2100 UTC) Advisory 30, Fiona was located at 25.6N 71.5W or about 615 miles (990 km) southwest of Bermuda and about 1385 miles (2225 km) south-southwest of Halifax Nova Scotia. Maximum sustained winds were 130 mph (215 km/h) and present movement was 10 degrees at 9 mph (15 km/h). The minimum central pressure was 937 mb (27.67 inches).
Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Thursday. And, Fiona is forecast to be a hurricane-force cyclone through Saturday.
Given the fact that Fiona has been erratic at times, any deviation to the east could bring Fiona onshore in Bermuda as a Cat 4 Hurricane. Therefore, the Hurricane Watch Net will activate Thursday at 5:00 PM EDT (2100 UTC) on our primary frequency of 14.325 MHz. We will activate our 40-meter Net on 7.268 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). We will remain on 20-meters for as long as propagation will allow and remain active on 40-meters until no longer required or propagation goes away. Should Fiona make direct landfall, we will resume operations Friday at 9:00 AM EDT (1300 UTC) to assist with post-storm reports and any outgoing Health and Welfare Traffic which would be at the direction of the Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio Network (SATERN).
All ClayARES members are encouraged to monitor the Hurricane Watch Net as their frequency privileges allow. Please remember that the Hurricane Watch Net is a directed net and is closed to non-net members or stations that are not in areas impacted by named storms. Please do not transmit on HWN frequencies unless specifically instructed to do so by the net control station.
Many of us are following the recovery efforts in Louisiana following Hurricane Ida’s landfall. Please find below the situation report submitted by Louisiana SEC James Coleman. This is specifically useful to ClayARES stations anticipating future deployment situations.
600 PM CDT Wednesday September 8 2021
Here is an update (Changes in Yellow)
Parishes Impacted
Acadia, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Evangeline, Iberia, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lafourche, Livingston, Orleans, Plaquemines, Point Coupee, St, Martin, St, Mary, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Landry, St. Martin, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, Terrebonne, Vermillion, Washington, West Baton Rouge, West Feliciana.
Status of Louisiana Wireless System (September 7, 2021 Data)
3.7% (down from 4.6% yesterday) of the cell sites in the affected area in Louisiana are out of service
Affected Parishes
Cell Sites Served
Cell Sites Out
ASCENSION
88
2
ASSUMPTION
19
2
EAST BATON ROUGE
360
3
JEFFERSON
289
16
LAFOURCHE
78
14
LIVINGSTON
121
3
ORLEANS
348
10
PLAQUEMINES
56
9
ST. MARY
56
1
ST. BERNARD
36
3
ST. CHARLES
41
8
ST. HELENA
13
0
ST. JAMES
33
5
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
27
4
ST. MARTIN
48
0
ST. TAMMANY
260
7
TANGIPAHOA
118
3
TERREBONNE
81
7
WASHINGTON
55
0
WEST FELICIANA
28
1
Status of Louisiana 9-1-1 Systems
No PSAPs are reported as being affected.
Reports From The Field
· The Jefferson Parish EOC with DEC Nicholas Frederick, W4NDF, and City of Kenner EOC with Mary Vernoy assisting, maintained a VHF net on 147.24 primary and 146.94 secondary. Kenner’s fiber optic cable that provides them internet with Jefferson Parish was cut by Entergy so they could access one of their lines to repair it. So the only comms that Kenner has with Jefferson Parish are 2 erratic cellphones and a VHF net. Former Navy Chief Mary Vernoy had to climb onto the roof (2 stories) and pick up the 2-meter antenna after the storm. It had been knocked down by the wind.
· A Florida based communications team in support of the Florida Baptists Disaster Relief has established operations at the Metairie Baptist Church, with their communications trailer. Their report states, “There is NO power in our area except near prime targets like hospitals. There are no local “shelters” in operation. They are using chartered busses to move people clear up to the northern end of the state and putting those needing shelter into shelters there. The feeding trailer (a kitchen that can heat up 14,000 meals per day at full output) is supposed to arrive in a few hours. Mike, W4UOO, just got a vertical set up and made his first VARA connection (WINLINK So everyone very much appreciates the ham group, no matter whether we are doing IT, or cell data, or winlink, or 2 meters, or anything else”.
· Mary Vernoy, WB5IOE our EOC ham operator at the Kenner EOC and a retired Navy Chief, when told that the Baptist communications group had arrived, said, “God bless y’all. I got home from a week straight duty with a total of 8 hours off. Trying to get my house secured. Like every one else- no electricity or pots like water but the 3 showers I’ve had since last Saturday, sure felt good. Starting to feel my 74 years, especially with the herniated back and torn rotator cuff. Hang in there.
· Nich Frederick, W4NDF, our DEC at the Jefferson Parish EOC said,
“I have been speaking to Mike Crisler, N4IFD, for the past 4 days and all day today. I gave them the 444.800 repeater while they got set up. I’m not in the EOC today because I’m working on taking care of business at home. I was going to go visit them this evening.”
· The following is from Gordon, KX3Z, “The people in Metairie have it pretty tough. No power to the sewage lift stations; boil water notice, although apparently there is still water pressure. Small areas around hospitals etc. have power now I’m told. It’s hot. Hams can be a big benefit by partnering with organizations like Florida Baptist and work to meet their specific communications needs. We have tons of skills that come in handy in ways you wouldn’t expect ; One of our guys has significant National Guard and industry experience with generators. He was a huge help and cabling power from the 60 KW Florida Baptist generator. Our ham radio guys are somewhat “embedded “ within this voluntary organization. That fits pretty well with the way NIMS/ICS was originally thought up.
· ARRL is shipping HF and VHF equipment to Louisiana Region 3 for use during their recovery efforts. The Region 3 DEC Miriam Barrett, KG5BNH and the St. Mary Parish’s ED, Jackie Price, KA5LMZ, have been coordinating their efforts to assist the Council on Aging in Terrebonne Parish. The HF kit being shipped contains an Icom IC- 7300 with cabling for digi and a microphone with antennas for 40 and 80. The VHF kit being shipped contains a Yaesu 2400 dual bander with two hand held units and a dual band base antenna.
· The LaPlace, Louisiana W5RAR repeater, 146.805 Mhz., 114.8 PLT, has been in use over a four parish area, LaFourche, St. Charles, St John, and Terrebonne Parishes. These four parishes have significant wireless system damage as well as 9-1-1 system in St. John Parish. St Charles EOC would then transmit their WebEOC requests via the LWARN 440 Mhz RF linked repeater system to WB5LHS at GOHSEP. The Region 3 DEC Miriam Barrett, KG5BNH, was assisting at the Terrebonne Parish EOC.
· In Tangipahoa Parish the following frequencies were monitored: Local 2m 147.000 (WB5NET Hammond), 2M 146.610 (W5TEO Hammond), 442.275 (WB5BTR Greensburg), 80m LA ARES nets, and SHARES day and evening frequencies. The Tangipahoa parish Emergency Operations Center in Amite was activated 1800 hours on 8-29-2021 which include trained amateur radio operators staffing the Radio Communication Room. On 8/29/21 Sunday morning a call was made for only radio checks on the Tangipahoa parish 147.000 repeater, WB5NET from the Tangipahoa EOC Radio Room (W5TEO) prior to the weather conditions deteriorating. Twenty hams called into the W5TEO station for radio checks. Three amateur radio operators (KE5KMM, W5TE, KE5GMN) rotated duties to monitor all radios (ham frequencies, LWIN, CB, GMRS, SHARE, etc. As weather conditions deteriorated, local repeaters lost power and were on battery backup (WB5NET 147.00 and (W5TEO 146.610). Two other local repeaters were lost when the tower collapsed (SELARC 145.130 & 444.250) With widespread power outages, formal weather nets were not conducted to conserve the power for emergency transmissions only. Battery backup was recharged/reestablished on the W5TEO tower site as weather/road conditions allowed. As of 9-6-2021, both repeaters (147.000 & 146.610) are still on battery backup. Repeaters have been quiet conserving power. The following amateurs have or are currently participating: KE5KMM, KE5GMN, W5TE, W5KB, KE5QKR, AA5GP, KF5YBY, AI5B, WX5EOC, KG5HZU, N5RYA, KF5IVT, N5RYI, N5XES, WA5SLU, N5PRF, AE5FK, WB5ERM, KF5UUP, K5OEP, WB5FBS, KE5QKR, N5OZG, N5EKF, KF5VLX, KG5EFQ, KD5PCK, N5JHF, K5QNT
· John Mark Robertson, SM and DEC OF Region 7 in the Shreveport area, reports ten requests for Health and Welfare information either by email, text or cell phone and relayed them to the appropriate agency and area.
· Elmer Tatum, N5EKF, reports that allAscension Parish, Louisiana Region 2’s ARC repeaters remain off the air. The 145.310 Mhz. repeater and the 146.985 Mhz. repeater have sustained damage. I will be at the 146.985 Mhz. repeater site on Tuesday. The 147.225 Mhz. repeater is off the air due to lack of power. The building it is in is a DOTD building with back up power that did not come on. The DOTD office at that tower location is still on emergency generators. Antennas at EOC and Comms Trailer were not damaged. There were 2 hams who manned the radios at the GOHSEP EOC (State of Louisiana EOC) for about 20 hours straight during the storm. I relieved them about 11:00 Monday morning and was by myself during the day. I did pass quite a few messages for St. Charles EOC over the 146.805 Mhz. repeater and 444.350 Mhz. LWARN repeater. We had serious interference from the 146.79 Mhz. repeater at GOHSEP on the 146.805 Mhz. repeater. I was taking emergency traffic from St. Charles EOC and has to switch to 146.79 Mhz. repeater to have those hams stand by which they did. I passed on quite a bit of information (not in ARRL message form) to St. Charles EOC. One request for ambulance transportation for 2 people from Luling to a medical shelter in Alexandria. Another request was for an interop # for St. John Parish SO that went from Travis to Conrad Baker, KG5FQT. Other request were for road closures and shelter information. The St. John EOC was not on the air. Occasionally we did speak to Conrad who would relay the message via his Sheriff Office’s radio. The Terrebonne and LaFourche EOC did have an occasional ham on the repeater going direct to each other. Full time operators in these EOCs would have very beneficial. A total of 3 hams operated about 40 hours at GOHSEP- Sunday night, Monday, and early Tuesday. Matt Anderson KD5KNZ, ASM,was monitoring the radio traffic and was able to help over the phone.
· Michael J. Nolan, KD5MLD, LA ARES Region 2 ADEC for Planning & NCS Coordinator, reports on a preliminary basis that the four Region 2 objectives were accomplished during the storm as follows:
o Objective 1, To establish amateur radio communication with GOHSEP, Region 2 Parish EOCs, the American Red Cross was Performed with Major Challenges.
o Objective Two, To request implementation of auxiliary communication Rapid Response Teams to assist served agencies for 72 hours was Performed with Major Challenges.
o Objective three, To promote to parish EOCs the real time value of situational reports from emergency amateur radio operators from their home locations was Performed with Some Challenges.
o Objective four, To educate amateur radio emergency operators to become embedded with their served agency of choice prior to activation was Performed with Major Challenges.
Summary
Louisiana ARES should now be on NORMAL status with the affected parishes’ status as appropriate for local conditions.
The SEC and DECs may activate a Region if additional manpower is needed to support those ECs which have activated their parish level ARES organization.
GOHSEP AUXCOMM and ARS WB5LHS have ceased operations and the request for volunteer communicators has been cancelled.
The Louisiana ARES Emergency Net is now on STANDBY. If it becomes necessary, the net will be active from 2:00 PM, CDT to 6:00 PM CDT on 7.255 Mhz. and from 6:00 PM, CDT To 10:00 PM CDT on 3.878 Mhz. Please contact Gary Stratton,******** or Joe Holland, ******** or Ed B. Hudgens, *********, for further information.
The ARES LWIN talk groups are being monitored for traffic but be aware that many LWIN sites are in site trunking mode.
The Louisiana Traffic Net will operates as per the following schedule:
· 1800 CDT, 3.910 MHz, 7 Days Per Week
The FCC’s has granted ARRL’s request for emergency waiver of the symbol rate limit for the sole purpose of handling traffic related to Hurricane Ida .
The order states, “we grant the ARRL’s waiver request for the period of 60 days from the date of this Order. The waiver is limited to amateur radio operators in the United States and its territories using publicly documented data protocols that are compatible with FCC rules, with the exception of the data rate limit waived here, for those directly involved with HF hurricane relief communications”. The order was dated August 30, 2021.
The normal SHARES South Region net schedule is being followed.
FEMA Announces HF Interoperability Activity on 60-Meter Channels 1 and 2. Channels 1 and 2 on 60 meters will be available starting on August
30 for interoperability between US government and US amateur radio stations involved in Hurricane Ida emergency communications. This situation will remain in place until the storm has passed and the need for these channels no longer exists, or on September 6, whichever comes first.
These frequencies will be used: Channel 1 Primary voice traffic 5332 kHz channel center, 5330.5 kHz USB voice; and Channel 2 Digital traffic 5348 kHz channel center, 5346.5 kHz USB with 1.5 kHz offset to center of digital waveform. Stations on 60 meters are asked to yield to operational traffic related to Hurricane Ida.
COML, COMT and RADO volunteers for the ARC should contact Matt Anderson at****** or Steve Irving, DST Lead, Louisiana Region, American Red Cross, Cell ********
Emergency communications kits from Headquarters, ARRL, have been pre-positioned in Louisiana in preparation for this event. Contact John Mark Robertson,******* or Jim Coleman,******** if you need additional HF or VHF equipment for emergency communications purposes.
Please refer to the Louisiana Emergency Communications Plan 6.1.20 for specific guidance.
Mindy was downgraded to a tropical depression at 5 AM this morning and will continue to move quickly east-northeast today and off the southeast Georgia coast later today. The main lingering impacts from this system will be locally heavy rainfall, wind gusts of 30-40 mph, and a very low potential for a tornado over northeast FL this morning. Additional information is in our briefing, linked below.
Hurricane Elsa: 8:30 am EDT/7:30 am CDT Statistics: Location: 13.1 North Latitude, 60.1 West Longitude or about 75 miles to the east of St. Vincent. Maximum Winds: 75 mph. Minimum Central Pressure: 995 Millibars or 29.39 Inches. Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 28 mph.
Elsa is certainly strengthening today and it is now a hurricane based on satellite imagery, radar imagery from Barbados and weather observations from Barbados.
Radar imagery from Barbados indicates that an eye seems to be forming with a partially closed eyewall observed. In addition, the airport in Barbados has recorded wind gusts of hurricane force (86 mph wind gust). Based on all of this, Elsa is now a hurricane with 75 to 80 mph winds or so. This means that the Windward Islands, and in particular the island of St. Lucia and St. Vincent, will see hurricane conditions the rest of this morning into this afternoon.
Satellite imagery today indicates that Elsa continues to become better organized and it seems the storm now has outflow in all quadrants. Deep thunderstorm activity is firing near its center today as well. Based on all of this, Elsa will be entering the southeastern Caribbean as a hurricane this afternoon.
Forecast Track: Elsa is currently moving on a general west-northwestward track and this movement should continue through Saturday and at least into Sunday. The weather pattern this weekend consists of an upper level high pressure system to the north of the hurricane. This ridge of high pressure will guide Elsa to the west-northwest for much of the weekend.
The track of Elsa this weekend into next week will hinge heavily on how strong it is in the Caribbean. Whereas Elsa is now a hurricane, its path will be dictated by the mid and upper level winds rather than lower level steering winds if it was a weak storm. An analysis of the steering winds around and ahead of Elsa reveals that the track of the storm should take it as far west as around 80 West Longitude before it begins to feel the influence of a upper level trough of low pressure exiting the East Coast of the United States.
This means that Elsa could track very close to, if not right over the island of Jamaica and across the Cayman Islands on Saturday night and Sunday with hurricane conditions probable.
The differences between the GFS model and the European model guidance are extremely large for both track and intensity. The European model’s forecast of a very weak system that tracks up into Haiti, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas will be discounted since Elsa is MUCH stronger than what the European model is depicting.
This means that the GFS model suite’s track forecast may be more accurate in the end leading to a gradual turn to the northwest when it reaches the area of Jamaica and western Cuba from Sunday into Monday.
My Thinking Is That Elsa will probably head in a west-northwest direction across the Caribbean this weekend into early next week. This means that hurricane impacts on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are probable from Sunday into Sunday night.
Beyond this, I think that Elsa could move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday night into Tuesday morning with hurricane impacts on the lower Florida Keys possible.
Where it goes after this still remains to be seen.
My “gut feeling” is that we see this head towards the area of the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida by about Tuesday night into Wednesday. With that said, all options are certainly on the table with impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Peninsula certainly in play.
One thing to note is that with Elsa paralleling the west coast of Florida from Tuesday into Wednesday, it means that at least tropical storm conditions could occur across much of the Florida Peninsula even if it stays just offshore.
Forecast Strength: Elsa is in a favorable environment for additional strengthening in the eastern and central Caribbean with warm ocean water temperatures, plenty of moisture to work with and relatively low wind shear values present. This means that additional steady strengthening looks likely for at least the next couple of days and I think that Elsa may be close to a 100 mph hurricane by the time it reaches the area near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
One thing that is still concerning is that the latest SHIPS intensity guidance Rapid Intensification Probability Matrix is forecasting a 37 percent chance for Elsa to strengthen up to a 105 mph hurricane by this time Saturday. Should this occur, it would mean a stronger Elsa by the time it gets to the area around Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. This type of strengthening is something that is being watched very closely.
Forecast Impacts:
Windward Islands & Barbados – Hurricane conditions, including bands of heavy rainfall (rain amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected) and wind gusts of up to 85 mph will continue through midday across Barbados and much of the Windward Islands before diminishing this afternoon.
Jamaica & The Cayman Islands – Hurricane conditions are probable beginning on Saturday night and continuing through Sunday. This includes bands of heavy rainfall and wind gusts of up to 100 mph.
Florida Panhandle & Florida Peninsula – Impacts on the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle will hinge on what type of track Elsa takes in the Caribbean this weekend. For now, I would make preliminary preparations for tropical storm to hurricane conditions, especially where this is a holiday weekend and things are already busy and crowded. Get your basics purchased today, including ice and water. Also, fuel up those gas tanks, just in case.
I think, at the minimum, much of, if not all of the Florida Peninsula will see tropical storm conditions beginning on Monday night and continuing through Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are a possibility along the west coast of Florida from about Tampa and points north, as well as across the Big Bend area of northwest Florida and parts of the Florida Panhandle.
Everyone across the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Peninsula need to keep updated on the latest progress and forecasts of Elsa throughout this weekend.
Model Track Forecast:
Satellite Imagery:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday.
In response to relief efforts following hurricane Iota’s landfall in the early morning hours of 17 NOV all amateur operators are requested to maintain clear frequencies on 7.180 MHz for Honduran emergency net operations (net control station – HR1JFA), and on 7.098 MHz for Nicaraguan emergency net operations.
Also, SATERN (The Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio Net) will operate on 14.264 MHz or 14.312 MHz 2000-2359Z TUE, WED, and THU (17,18, 19 NOV).
International Association Red Cross volunteers have been staged in Belize and will convoy to Honduras and Nicaragua later this week. Extended relief operations are expected during the next few weeks. Radio operators with the IARC will utilize 60 meters.
